Weekly Download #36

Hi !

This week in Silicon Valley, startups & tech:

• 🏈 Super Bowl 60 became AI's coming-out party: Anthropic, Meta, Amazon, and Google all ran AI ads, while Crypto.com's CEO launched ai.com

• 💰 Databricks closes $7B ($5B equity + $2B debt): Got a $134B valuation, with annualized revenue crossing $5.4B, up 65% YoY

• 🏗️ Alphabet is selling $15B in bonds: Includes a rare 100-year sterling bond to help fund $185B in 2026 capex; attracted $100B+ in orders

• 📉 Monday.com plunges 20%+ on weak guidance: Agentic AI tools threaten the project management category, while Workday's CEO abruptly steps down

• 🤖 US Govt is going AI-first: NASA reported 420 AI use cases in 2025 (up from 18 in 2024), and the DOD made Oura rings an employee benefit

As we continue to build at Context Ventures, we've launched Startup Intros with a simple mission: to help early-stage founders find the right investors, faster and smarter.

🏈 Super Bowl 60: AI's Coming-Out Party

A year ago, AI was the new kid at the Super Bowl. This year, it ran the show.

🤖 AI Dominated the Ads

The most expensive ad real estate in the world, $8M per 30-second spot, was an AI showcase. Anthropic ran its first Super Bowl ad and took a direct shot at OpenAI: "Ads are coming to AI. But not to Claude." Sam Altman fired back on X, calling it "clearly dishonest."

Meta pushed Ray-Ban smart glasses. Google promoted Gemini. Svedka debuted the first "primarily" AI-generated national commercial. When vodka brands are betting their biggest ad spend on AI-made robots, the cultural Rubicon has been crossed.

🏢 Anthropic's $30B Week

It wasn't just the ad. The Financial Times reported Anthropic's enterprise revenue guidance now exceeds $30B annualized by the end of 2026. That's Salesforce-scale, in four years, not 25.

The WSJ profiled Amanda Askell, the philosopher teaching Claude morality. Steve Yegge wrote about its "Yes, and..." hive mind culture. And Opus 4.6 got a fast mode with 2.5x speed, 6x cost.

🎰 Crypto and Prediction Markets

Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek launched ai.com in beta during the game, which is built on the $70M domain. Kalshi and Polymarket facilitated over $800M in Super Bowl contracts, from coin toss to Gatorade color. When professional traders deploy serious capital in prediction markets, the line between "betting" and "forecasting" blurs.

Translation: The Super Bowl is America's cultural barometer. This year's reading: AI has crossed from tech curiosity to cultural default. The question of "Is AI going mainstream?" isn't a question anymore.

💰 Big Tech's $185B Capex Binge

The numbers are getting absurd. As The Information reported, the capex ramp will "all but wipe out free cash flow" for Google, Amazon, and Meta. This isn't an investment with spare cash; it's betting-the-company capital deployment.

📈 Alphabet's Bond Bonanza

Alphabet launched a $15B bond sale that attracted $100B+ in orders, a 7x oversubscription. Among the instruments: a rare 100-year sterling bond. IBM was the last tech company to do this, in 1996.

Why borrow when you print cash? Because 2026 capex is $175-185B, up from $91.4B in 2025. Q4 capex was $27.9B, nearly double Q4 2024's $14.3B. Reuters called it a "sharp surge." They're building a second Alphabet in infrastructure costs alone.

🛒 Amazon's $200B Bet

Amazon projected 2026 capex at $200B, up from ~$131B in 2025. AWS revenue grew 24% YoY to $35.58B in Q4. The kicker is that Amazon's tax bill fell 87% to $1.2B while profits grew 45% to ~$90B. Investing its way out of taxes while building the AI infrastructure layer.

🟢 Nvidia Says It's All Justified

Nvidia stock jumped 7.92% after Jensen Huang declared the collective $660B capex buildout "justified, appropriate, and sustainable." Of course, when you sell the shovels in a gold rush, every mine looks like a good investment.

🍎 Apple Zigs While Everyone Zags

Apple was the only Big Tech company whose capex declined, down 19% to $2.37B. While Google spends $28B in a quarter and Amazon commits $200B for the year, Apple spends less than its peers burn in a week. Playing a different game: on-device AI, custom silicon, capital discipline. Or falling behind. The market hasn't decided yet.

Translation: Big Tech is committing $600B+ to AI infrastructure in 2026, and borrowing to do it. When companies that print cash issue 100-year bonds, they're not hedging. They're all-in.

📉 Are AI Agents Killing SaaS?

Something broke in the software market this week. Software stocks lost $1T in a single week. Hedge funds shorted $24B in software stocks this year, and they're increasing the bet. Jefferies traders are calling it the "SaaSpocalypse."

📉 Monday.com: The Canary

Monday.com cratered 21% after weak Q1 guidance. Co-CEO Eran Zinman insisted "we don't see any impact from AI," but the market isn't buying it. Anthropic's Claude Cowork launched the same week, handling project coordination, CRM, and legal research through conversation. When an AI agent manages tasks through natural language, what's the moat for a drag-and-drop board?

🔄 Workday's Emergency CEO Swap

Workday CEO Carl Eschenbach stepped down immediately, with co-founder Aneel Bhusri returning. WDAY dropped 8%+. When a co-founder rushes back to navigate AI disruption, the threat is real. HR and financial planning software faces AI agents that handle expense reports and onboarding without $100/seat/month subscriptions.

🏆 Winners vs. Losers

The contrast is stark. Databricks: $134B valuation, $5.4B revenue, 65% growth. Harvey: $11B. These companies build for the agent era. On the other side: ServiceNow -28% YTD, Salesforce -26%, Monday.com lost half its value in 2026. Open-source AI agents like OpenClaw can orchestrate workflows that used to require three different SaaS subscriptions.

Translation: The market is pricing in a world where AI agents replace entire SaaS categories. $1T evaporated, co-founders, rushing back, platforms shuttering. The agent era isn't coming: it's already here.

🌍 The US Government Goes AI-First

While the private sector debates AI's impact, the US Government is quietly becoming one of the most aggressive adopters of AI on the planet.

🏛️ The Federal AI Explosion

The Washington Post reported that NASA deployed 420 AI use cases in 2025, up from 18 in 2024. A 23x increase. HHS: 398. Energy: 325. DOJ: 295. Interior: 234. DHS: 205. Every cabinet department now has a Chief AI Officer. The federal AI market is turning into a gold rush.

⌚ Oura's Washington Power Play

Politico reported Oura spends $1M+/year on lobbying. The payoff: the DOD now offers Oura Rings as an employee benefit. A Finnish health-tech company became a defense contractor not by building weapons but by putting heart-rate monitors on soldiers' fingers.

🏔️ Palmer Luckey's Hobbit Bank

The Oculus founder's Erebor (yes, named after The Hobbit) became the first new bank chartered under Trump 2.0, with $635M in capital. The play: banking for defense contractors that traditional banks won't serve.

Translation: The US Government isn't just regulating AI; it's becoming one of the world's largest AI customers. From NASA's 420 deployments to Oura on soldiers' fingers to defense-tech banking, the federal-AI complex is real and growing exponentially.

⚡ Startup & Investor Quick Hits

Lotus Health AI: Raised $41M from Kleiner Perkins & CRV for the future of primary care; built an AI doctor powered by real doctors and the latest evidence.

Databricks: Raised $5B equity + $2B debt at $134B. Annualized revenue $5.4B, up 65% YoY. Most valuable private AI company in the world.

Harvey: Seeking $200M at $11B for its legal AI startup, led by Sequoia and GIC. Up from $8B. Legal AI is the hottest enterprise vertical.

SambaNova: Raised $350M+ Series E for AI chips led by Vista Equity Partners; Intel investing $100-150M. Hedging against GPU monopoly pricing.

Cerebras: Raised ~$1B Series H led by Tiger Global. Benchmark raised a $225M special fund just to participate.

Gather AI: Rasied $40M Series B, total funding $74M for autonomous warehouse inventory drones.

Neara: Raised AU$90M Series D at AU$1.1B for infrastructure digital twins; data centers are pressuring power grids worldwide.

💸 M&A & IPO Quick Hits

Uber acquires Getir: Spends $335M and takes a 15% stake for $100M to expand its delivery operations into Turkey and emerging markets.

Beast Industries acquires Step Mobile: Spent $5.2B for this teen banking app; MrBeast is embedding fintech into the creator economy.

InPost: Acquired for €7.8B by the Advent/FedEx consortium. 61K+ automated parcel lockers across Europe.

Montage: This Chinese chip designer had a $902M Hong Kong IPO that jumped 64% on debut. China's chip ecosystem is building independently.

🌟 Editor's Note

At Startup Intros, our mission is to bring the latest founder-investor news straight to your inbox, keeping you ahead in the fast-paced world of Silicon Valley.

💭 Parting Thoughts: The Year Starts With a Warning

This week tells one story through four lenses:

• AI company advertising dominated the Super Bowl

• Alphabet issued a 100-year bond to fund $185B in capex

• $1T evaporated from software stocks, and

• NASA went from 18 to 420 AI use cases in a single year.

The gap between companies building for the agent era and those defending against it keeps widening.

Forward to a friend or hit reply to let me know what you're seeing in your world.

Till next time!

P.S. Raised this week, and we missed you? Want to be featured? Have tips or funding questions? Reply or DM us as we’re here to help.

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