Weekly Download #33

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This week in Silicon Valley, startups & tech:

• Claude's Coronation Week: Anthropic's audience doubled YoY, Sequoia joins a $25B+ mega-round, and coders spend holidays on a "Claude bender"

• SaaS Apocalypse Pricing In: Morgan Stanley's SaaS index down 15% YTD as Claude Cowork sparks "extinction-level event" fears

• OpenAI's Ad Pivot: Testing ads in ChatGPT for free/Go users, expecting "low billions" in 2026 ad revenue

• Thinking Machines Implodes: Five staff out, two quit via Slack during all-hands, and their $50B fundraise is in doubt

• Crypto Winter Returns: Bitcoin below $92K, ~$100B wiped from market cap, and 53%+ of all tokens launched since 2021 are now dead

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👑 Claude's Coronation: Anthropic's Breakout Week

📈 The Numbers That Matter

Similarweb data shows Claude's web audience more than doubled YoY in December 2025, with the WSJ reporting that many coders spent their holiday breaks on a "Claude bender" testing Claude Opus 4.5. That's not marketing; that's developers voting with their keyboards.

The Fundraise: Sources tell the Financial Times that Sequoia is planning a major investment in Anthropic, joining a round led by GIC and Coatue (investing $1.5B each) as the company aims to raise $25B+. For context, that would be one of the largest private funding rounds in history.

The Product Expansion: Anthropic opened Claude Cowork to $20/month Pro subscribers this week, after initially launching it only for Max users. The caveat is that Pro users "may hit their usage limits sooner." So it seems that demand is outstripping capacity.

The Talent Magnet: Andrea Vallone, OpenAI's former Head of Model Policy, joined Anthropic's alignment team. When your competitor's safety leadership keeps defecting to you, the market is sending a message.

💀 The SaaS Reckoning

Claude's rise has a body count: software stocks. Bloomberg reports that Claude Cowork has revived fears about AI disruption, with Morgan Stanley's SaaS index now down 15% YTD. Doug O'Laughlin at Fabricated Knowledge called it an "extinction-level event" for horizontal software companies. Adobe's stock has slumped 45%+ since the end of 2023, with analysts now the most bearish since 2013.

Translation: The market isn't just pricing in competition; it's pricing in obsolescence. When a SaaS index drops 15% in three weeks because of one product launch, investors are betting that AI agents don't just compete with software; they replace the need for it.

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📺 OpenAI's Advertising Pivot: ChatGPT Gets Commercials

OpenAI is done pretending subscriptions are enough.

📢 The Ad Play

The Financial Times reports that OpenAI plans to test ads beneath ChatGPT replies for users on the free and Go tiers in the US. A source says OpenAI expects to generate "low billions" in ad revenue in 2026. Wired clarifies that ads will match conversation topics using personalization data, but OpenAI claims it won't sell user data or expose conversations to advertisers.

The Global Push: OpenAI expanded ChatGPT Go to the US and rest of the world this week at $8/month, creating a new tier between free (with ads) and Pro ($20/month).

The Scale Context: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar revealed that compute grew from 0.2 GW in 2023 to ~1.9 GW in 2025, while annualized revenue grew from $2B to $20B+. At that burn rate, ads aren't optional; they're necessary.

🔧 The Hardware Angle

OpenAI issued RFPs to US hardware manufacturers for consumer devices, robotics, and data centers. Executive Chris Lehane confirmed the company is "on track" to unveil its first device in H2 2026, with reports suggesting it will be a screenless wearable.

Translation: OpenAI's business model is evolving from "charge power users" to "monetize everyone." Ads for free users, $8 for casual users, $20 for pro users, $200 for power users, and eventually hardware. They're not building a chatbot; they're building an ecosystem.

💥 Thinking Machines Lab: The Wheels Come Off

What started as a promising AI lab is turning into a cautionary tale about founder drama.

🚪 The Exodus

The Information reports that after five staff left, investors are rattled, potentially impacting the company's $50B valuation fundraise. The kicker: two researchers quit via Slack during an all-hands meeting. Sources tell Alex Heath the company lacks a clear product or business strategy.

The CTO Drama: Wired reported that leaders confronted co-founder Barret Zoph over an alleged relationship with another employee in the summer of 2025. Zoph has since returned to OpenAI, along with two other co-founders. At least two more employees are expected to follow, with some researchers citing exhaustion from "the industry's constant drama."

Translation: Thinking Machines went from $50B valuation target to an existential crisis in weeks. When co-founders leave for the competition, researchers quit during all-hands, and investors smell blood, the product doesn't matter.

⚡ Funding Round Quick Hits

☁️ ClickHouse Raised $400M at $15B: Snowflake challenger led by Dragoneer, up from $6.35B in May 2025

🎙️ ElevenLabs Seeking $11B Valuation: Raising hundreds of millions, up from $6.6B four months ago

🤖 Higgsfield Raised $80M at $1.3B+: AI video startup hit $200M ARR; Series A extension from Accel

🏭 Tulip Raised $120M at $1.3B: Frontline operations platform led by Mitsubishi

🤖 Mytra Raised $120M Series C: Autonomous warehouse robots led by Avenir Growth

🛰️ Hydrosat Raised $60M Series B: Thermal satellite imaging at $180M valuation

🔐 WitnessAI Raised $58M: AI governance platform led by Sound Ventures

💰 Investor Quick Hits

🚀 a16z Expands AI Infrastructure Fund to $3B: Bloomberg profiles how a16z found success with its 2024 $1.25B fund, focusing on early-stage deals and ~$60M checks

🏦 Anchorage Digital Seeking $200-400M: First federally chartered US digital asset bank eyes 2027 IPO

🔋 BlackRock Raises $12.5B for Microsoft AI Partnership: Approaching $30B goal for data centers and energy infrastructure

🛡️ DTCP Raising €500M for European Defense Fund: German VC firm targeting defense and security tech across Europe

🌿 Superorganism Raised $26M for Biodiversity Fund: Debut fund focused on biodiversity investments

💼 TrueBridge Raising Up to $275M for Fund IV: Fourth direct VC fund from the North Carolina-based firm

💸 M&A & IPO Quick Hits

🔍 Google Appealing Search Monopoly Ruling: Asks court to pause remedies during appeal

💎 Micron Buying Taiwan Fab for $1.8B: Acquiring Powerchip site for DRAM expansion; closing Q2 2026

🔗 GlobalFoundries/MIPS Acquiring Synopsys ARC IP: Integrating ARC processor IP, including RISC-V

📱 Asus Exiting Smartphones: No new phones in 2026, signaling potential Android exit

🌟 Editor's Note

At Startup Intros, our mission is to bring the latest founder-investor news straight to your inbox, keeping you ahead in the fast-paced world of Silicon Valley.

💭 Parting Thoughts: The Year Starts With a Warning

This week made one thing clear: the AI industry is consolidating around winners and losers faster than anyone expected.

Anthropic is winning. Claude's audience doubled, Sequoia is piling in, and OpenAI's safety talent keeps defecting. The SaaS index dropping 15% in three weeks isn't a correction; it's the market recognizing that AI agents are coming for the software industry's lunch.

OpenAI is adapting. Ads, hardware, new pricing tiers; they're building every monetization lever they can find because $20B in revenue still isn't enough when you're burning through gigawatts of compute.

Thinking Machines is a warning. A $50B valuation means nothing when your co-founders leave, your researchers quit on Slack, and investors smell blood.

The next few months will separate the companies building durable businesses from those riding hype cycles, so place your bets accordingly.

Forward to a friend or hit reply to let me know what you're seeing in your world.

Till next time!

P.S. Raised this week, and we missed you? Want to be featured? Have tips or funding questions? Reply or DM us as we’re here to help.

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