Weekly Download #24

This week in Silicon Valley, Startups & Tech:

• OpenAI's $490B Tax Credit Fantasy: Lobbies for 35% CHIPS Act credits on $1.4T infrastructure spend, CFO suggests loan guarantees, AI czar kills it dead

• China Already Won (According to Nvidia's CEO): Jensen Huang declares China "nanoseconds behind" while the US blocks even compliance-built chips

• The Great AI Bailout Debate: OpenAI wants taxpayers to split the bill while projecting "hundreds of billions" in 2030 revenue that doesn't exist yet

• Sequoia's Imperial Collapse: Roelof Botha ousted over leadership style and AI strategy as venture capital's kingmakers discover limits

• Google's $350B Anthropic Bet: Early talks at 100x markup from initial investment, because watching Microsoft have all the AI fun got expensive

As we continue to build at Context Ventures, we've launched Startup Intros with a simple mission: to help early-stage founders find the right investors, faster and smarter.

💸 The $1.4T Bill OpenAI Wants You to Split

🏦 OpenAI Discovers Tax Credits Are Just Bailouts With Better Branding

OpenAI's chief global affairs officer sent the White House a letter in October 2025 asking to expand the CHIPS Act's 35% Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit to cover AI data centers, servers, and grid infrastructure.

• $1.4T: OpenAI's planned US infrastructure investment through 2033

• $490B: Amount of the investment that OpenAI wants taxpayers to subsidize

• $175B annually: What they need to average to meet commitments

• 35% Cash Back: What semiconductor fabs currently get and what AI companies now want

Reality Check: The CHIPS Act was designed to reshore semiconductor manufacturing, but it’s turning into an AI infra subsidy program. OpenAI projects "multi-hundred-billion" revenue by 2030, yet the capital intensity is so extreme that they're actively lobbying for federal tax credits.

💬 OpenAI's CFO Says the Quiet Part Loud, Issues LinkedIn Correction

Days later, CFO Sarah Friar accidentally escalated the ask at a Wall Street Journal event, suggesting the government should "backstop" OpenAI's infrastructure loans. Within 48 hours, both Friar and CEO Sam Altman were doing damage control on LinkedIn.

The Distinction: They want tax credits, not loan guarantees, a significant difference compared to Solyndra. But when your CFO accidentally proposes government loan guarantees at a public event, you've revealed exactly how astronomical the spending has become.

🚫 Trump's AI Czar Torpedoes Any Bailout Dreams

White House AI czar David Sacks killed the bailout fantasy, declaring that if one of the five major AI companies collapses, the others will simply absorb the scraps. So if you're raising hundreds of billions in capital, don't come crying to taxpayers when the burn rate catches up.

What DC Will Actually Do:

• Yes: Accelerate infrastructure permitting, expand power generation, broaden manufacturing tax credits

• No: Write checks or guarantee loans for struggling AI labs

The Timing: This dropped right after Friar's "backstop" trial balloon. Nothing says confidence in your business model like hinting at federal guarantees while raising capital at a $300B valuation.

💪 Altman's Bold Bet: "We'll Fund It With Revenue That Doesn't Exist Yet"

Sam Altman rejected government guarantees, insisting OpenAI will fund everything through revenue expected to hit "hundreds of billions by 2030." Bold words for $1.4T in commitments over eight years.

• Current Revenue: $20B+ annualized run rate

• 2030 Projection: "Hundreds of billions"

• The Gap: Betting on 10x revenue growth to fund commitments made today

The Kicker: OpenAI still wants DC’s help, just not direct bailouts. They're lobbying for broader manufacturing tax credits. Nothing says "we don't need government support" quite like betting $1.4T on future revenue while asking for 35% tax credits on capex.

🌍 The AI Stack Fractures Into Separate Civilizations

🇨🇳 Nvidia's CEO Declares China Already Won

Jensen Huang told the Financial Times that "China is going to win the AI race," arguing US chip export bans aren't slowing Beijing down; they're turbocharging domestic innovation. The CEO whose chips power 90% of global AI training says China is only "nanoseconds behind America" and accelerating.

Huang's Thesis: Export controls promote Chinese self-sufficiency rather than dependence. China offers massive energy subsidies and streamlined approvals, while Western "cynicism" about AI creates regulatory paralysis.

The Irony: Nothing says "export controls are working" like the world's leading AI chip CEO declaring your adversary has already won. The ban, intended to preserve US dominance, may be creating exactly the bifurcated AI future it sought to prevent.

🚧 DC Moves the Goalposts: Even Compliant Chips Banned Now

The White House will block Nvidia's sale of scaled-down B30A chips to China, or the chips specifically engineered to comply with existing restrictions. DC still said no.

• First Wave: Ban flagship H100 and A100 chips

• Second Wave: Block "compliant" versions (H800, A800, L40S)

• Now: Even deliberately gimped chips are too powerful

Reality Check: The US is systematically bifurcating the AI hardware stack. Every new restriction validates China's decade-long push for semi self-sufficiency. We're forcing both sides to build completely separate tech ecosystems from the silicon up.

⚛️ China Weaponizes the Periodic Table, Then Negotiates a Timeout

China suspended export restrictions on five critical minerals (gallium, germanium, antimony, rare earths, and graphite) following a November 2025 trade agreement. The suspension lasts until November 2026 with quarterly reviews.

What's at Stake: These materials are essential for semiconductor manufacturing, batteries, defense systems, and EV motors. China dominates the global processing of all five.

Reality Check: This isn't a truce, as China just reminded the world that you can design the most sophisticated AI chip imaginable, but you can't manufacture it without their rocks. The AI stack is fracturing all the way down to the periodic table.

⚡ AI Infrastructure Quick Hits: The $1T+ Shopping Spree

🏭 Tesla's Terafab: When Automakers Become Chip Nations: Elon announced Tesla will build a big "terafab" starting at 100K wafers per month, eyeing Intel as a partner. The target is AI5 chips at 10% of Blackwell's cost with one-third the power.

🏳️ Brussels Blinks: EU AI Act Dies Before It Lives: The EU is considering pausing or simplifying its AI Act after pressure from Big Tech and DC. The law took effect in August 2024, but the EU is now retreating with longer deadlines and "streamlined compliance."

💰 Meta's $600B Gambit That Might Break the Bank: Meta committed $600B to US AI infra through 2028. That's nearly tripling annual capex from current levels. Analysts are skeptical whether Meta can actually fund this without significant debt.

💔 Microsoft's $13B Bet Gets a Backup Plan: Microsoft is actively reducing its strategic reliance on OpenAI by developing proprietary "MAI" models and integrating Claude into Office 365 Copilot.

⚡ Startup Quick Hits: When Crypto Gets Respectable

💰 Ripple's $500M From Wall Street's Finest at $40B: The payments company landed Fortress, Citadel Securities, and Pantera. The round screams "crypto has gone institutional" as it’s a traditional financial services company with blockchain.

🖥️ Majestic Labs' $100M for 1,000x Memory: Emerged from stealth with $71M Series A from Bow Wave Capital, plus prior funding, to build "patent-pending" AI server architecture promising 1,000x the memory capacity of current GPU systems.

🎯 Reevo's $80M to Replace Your Entire Sales Stack at $500M: Ex-DoorDash eng leader David Zhu raised $10M seed and $70M Series A from Khosla and Kleiner for an "AI-native GTM platform" that unifies marketing, sales, and customer success.

💡 Scribe's $75M at $1.3B to Tell You Where AI Will Pay Off: This platform helps enterprises identify where AI and automation investments will actually generate ROI. StepStone led the Series C with Amplify, Redpoint, and Tiger Global following.

📊 Gamma's $68M at $2.1B for Being Canva But for Decks: A16z led the round for the AI content generation tool that creates decks, social posts, and websites. They have 600K+ paying subscribers, 70M total users, $100M revenue, and are profitable.

💰 Investor Quick Hits: VC's Midlife Crisis Accelerates

👑 Sequoia's Imperial Overreach: Roelof Botha was ousted by senior Sequoia partners amid concerns about his "imperial style" leadership, AI investment strategy, and internal clashes.

🏛️ Schwab's Private Market Initiation: Acquiring Forge Global, a leading platform for trading private startup stakes, for as much as $600M to bring pre-IPO investing to retail clients.

🇮🇳 India Deep Tech Alliance's $850M Expansion: Qualcomm Ventures and six Indian VC firms added $850M+ in commitments to the September-launched alliance that already had $1B, while Nvidia joined as a strategic technical advisor.

🎙️ a16z's Creator-to-Founder Pipeline: Eight-week fellowship starting January 2026 places content creators into the a16z ecosystem with potential deployment to portfolio companies and pathways to full-time roles or new ventures.

💸 IPO & M&A Quick Hits: Musical Chairs Get Wilder

🎰 Google's $350B Bet on Anthropic: Google is in early talks to deepen its strategic investment in Anthropic at a $350B+ valuation, having already poured in $3B+. That's a 100x+ markup on their initial bet.

🚀 Wiz's Regulatory Speedrun: DOJ completed its antitrust review of Google's $32B Wiz acquisition with early termination on October 24, clearing the deal without objections. Apparently, regulators think Google Cloud needs all the help it can get.

📡 EchoStar's $20B Spectrum Fire Sale: SpaceX is acquiring EchoStar's AWS-3 spectrum licenses for $2.6B in stock, completing a two-deal blitz after buying AWS-4 and H-block licenses for ~$17B in September.

🔨 Schwab Forges Into Private Markets: Charles Schwab is acquiring Forge Global, a platform for trading private startup stakes, for $600-660M, sending Forge's stock up 70% despite the deal being just 0.4% of Schwab's $170B market cap.

✈️ Klook's $141M Loss Roadshow to NYSE: SoftBank-backed travel platform filed for a US IPO listed as "KLK" on the NYSE. It’s seeking $300-500M, led by Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and JPM.

💸 In Other Bay Area Funding News

Here's a roundup of notable recent funding rounds across the Bay Area:

🤖 Artificial Intelligence

• Inception: Raised $50M Seed led by Menlo Ventures to prove diffusion models aren't just for images by processing multiple tokens in parallel.

• Flint: Raised $15M Series A led by Basis Set Ventures and Patron for AI, providing personalized K-12 learning experiences.

• Wabi: Raised $20M Pre-Seed for a social platform enabling quick creation of tiny apps using instructions.

• Ceres AI: Raised $13M Round led by REMUS Capital for a data analytics platform to minimize farming risks.

• Freya Voice: Raised $3.5M Seed for AI voice agents managing phone-based customer interactions.

• IP Author: Raised $3.1M Seed for AI patent drafting software for IP law firms and corporate patent groups.

🔐 Cybersecurity

• Armis: Raised $435M Venture Round led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity for cyber exposure management and security.

• Truffle Security: Raised $25M Series B led by A16z and Intel Capital for open source solutions to solve leaked software credentials.

• Sunflower Labs: Raised $16M Series B led by Sequoia for a fully autonomous, AI-powered drone security system.

• Portal26: Raised $9M Series A led by Shasta Ventures for a platform rendering data immune to ransomware, cyberattacks, and extortion.

🧬 Biotech

• Neok Bio: Raised $75M Series A led by ABL Bio for bispecific ADCs in cancer therapy.

• Azalea Therapeutics: Raised $65M Series A led by Third Rock Ventures for developing cancer immunotherapies.

• The EVERY Company: Raised $55M Series D led by McWin Partners for animal-free egg protein ingredients using precision fermentation.

• Hepta Bio: Raised $6.7M Seed led by Felicis and Illumina Ventures for detecting, monitoring, and directing the most effective liver treatment.

🏥 Healthcare

• Amae Health: Raised $25M Series B led by Altos Ventures for integrated outpatient care for individuals with severe mental illness.

• Digitail: Raised $23M Series B led by Five Elms Capital for redesigning how pet care is delivered.

💼 SaaS & Marketing

• MoEngage: Raised $60M Series F led by A91 Partners and Goldman Sachs Alternatives for cloud-based marketing services for consumer businesses.

• Cactus: Raised $7M Seed led by Wellington Management and Y Combinator for AI tools handling admin tasks and client engagement.

💰 Other

• Poseidon Aerospace: Raised $11M Seed led by Tamarack Global for autonomous sea-based aircraft transporting cargo using ground effect flight.

• The Beans: Raised $5.4M Seed for a software application platform creating personalized cash flow plans.

🌟 Editor's Note

At Startup Intros, our mission is to bring the latest founder-investor news straight to your inbox, keeping you ahead in the fast-paced world of Silicon Valley.

💭 Parting Thoughts

So there you have it: a week where OpenAI asked taxpayers for $490B while insisting they'll fund everything with revenue that doesn't exist yet, Jensen Huang declared China already won the AI race while selling them gimped chips, and Sequoia's partners discovered that even venture capital has limits on tolerating imperial leadership styles.

Forward to a friend or hit reply to let me know what you're seeing in your world.

Till next time!

P.S. Raised this week, and we missed you? Want to be featured? Have tips or funding questions? Reply or DM us as we’re here to help.

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