Trending Thursday #31

Hi !

Welcome to 2026, where the AI cold war has gone hot, robots are going to school, and your doctor might be a chatbot.

Here's what's been trending:

• Nvidia is demanding upfront payment from Chinese customers, hedging against Beijing potentially blocking H200 approvals

• China is playing both sides of the H200 deal: sources say approval could come in Q1, while others say officials told companies to halt orders entirely

• Boston Dynamics partnered with Google DeepMind to put Gemini inside its Atlas humanoid robots, targeting Hyundai factories by 2028

• China is building dozens of "robot training centers" where human trainers mimic movements like folding clothes to teach machines

• OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, letting users import medical records from health apps; 40M+ Americans already use ChatGPT for health help

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🇨🇳 The H200 Standoff: Nvidia's $50B Gamble

The US-China chip war has entered its most absurd phase yet.

Nvidia is caught between two governments that can't decide what they want, and the company is making customers pay for the uncertainty. Literally.

The Payment Terms: Reuters reports that Nvidia is now requiring Chinese customers to pay upfront in full for H200 chips, with no cancellations, refunds, or changes allowed. This isn't standard chip procurement; it's Nvidia hedging against the very real possibility that Beijing blocks the deal after orders are placed.

The Contradictory Signals:

• Bloomberg: China plans to approve H200 imports as soon as Q1 2026, while still barring military use

• The Information: China has told some local tech companies to temporarily halt purchase orders while officials deliberate

• Financial Times: Jensen Huang says Nvidia has "fired up" H200 production and is finishing "last details" with Washington

China Builds Its Own Walls: While negotiating access to American chips, Beijing is simultaneously building fences around its own AI know-how. The WSJ reports China is identifying standout domestic AI companies to add to an export control list, mirroring the same restrictions the US has placed on Nvidia. The message to Chinese startups eyeing deals like Meta's Manus acquisition: not so fast.

The Meta Angle: Speaking of Manus, China is also investigating Meta's $2B acquisition for potential export control violations. The startup was originally based in Beijing and Wuhan before relocating to Singapore.

The Math: Nvidia's China business was worth $50B annually before export restrictions. Jensen called it "effectively closed to US industry." But the H200 represents a narrow path back in, if both governments can agree on terms, which they clearly haven't.

Translation: When Nvidia requires cash upfront with no refunds, that tells you everything about how confident they are this deal closes. And when China starts building its own export control lists, the chip cold war becomes a two-way street. Neither side is backing down.

🤖 Physical AI: The Robot Moment Arrives

CES 2026 made one thing clear: the next AI battlefield isn't in the cloud, it's in the physical world.

The Big Partnerships:

Boston Dynamics announced a partnership with Google DeepMind to deploy Gemini Robotics models on its Atlas humanoid robots. The upgraded robots will work in Hyundai's factories starting in 2028, including at a plant in Georgia. This is Boston Dynamics' most ambitious commercial deployment yet, and it's powered by Google's brain.

Arm created an entire "Physical AI" division focused on robotics and automotive, alongside reorganized "Cloud and AI" and "Edge" business units. The chip designer is betting that AI moving into the physical world will create demand for specialized processors.

The Hardware:

• Mobileye acquired Mentee Robotics for $900M: The Israeli humanoid startup had only raised $50M

• Qualcomm unveiled Dragonwing IQ10: A full-stack humanoid robotics platform integrating hardware, software, and AI

• Samsung quietly shelved Ballie: The rolling robot it announced six years ago but never shipped, calling it an "active innovation platform"

The China Angle:

The Rest of World reports that Chinese local governments are funding dozens of "robot training centers" where human trainers mimic movements like folding clothes to teach robots. It's the physical equivalent of data labeling, humans teaching machines by demonstration.

Translation: 2025 was about AI that could think. 2026 is about AI that can move. When Google DeepMind powers Boston Dynamics, Arm creates a robotics division, and China builds human-robot training schools, the infra for physical AI is being laid.

🏥 ChatGPT Wants to Be Your Doctor

OpenAI is making its biggest healthcare push yet, and regulators are getting out of the way.

The Product: OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT Health, which lets users import medical records and data from health apps directly into ChatGPT. The feature is currently available to a small group via waitlist, but the ambition is clear: become the AI layer between patients and the healthcare system.

The Scale: OpenAI says 40M+ Americans already use ChatGPT daily for health information. That's not a product launch; it's recognizing existing behavior and building infrastructure around it.

The Adoption:

• Hospitals are buying in: 27% of health systems now pay for commercial AI licenses, making them a "proving ground" for enterprise AI

• States are experimenting: Utah launched a pilot with Doctronic to let AI handle routine prescription renewals for patients with chronic conditions, the first state to let AI prescribe medications

• Regulators are stepping back: The FDA announced it will limit regulation of non-medical wellness wearables and AI software, provided they don't claim to diagnose or treat disease

The Liability Question: This comes weeks after Character.AI and Google agreed to settle lawsuits with families of teenagers who harmed themselves after chatbot interactions. Healthcare AI operates in the same gray zone: immensely useful until something goes wrong.

Translation: Healthcare is AI's killer app, and its biggest liability. When 40M Americans already ask ChatGPT health questions daily, OpenAI isn't launching a healthcare product; they're formalizing a behavior pattern. The FDA stepping back, states piloting AI prescriptions, hospitals buying licenses, and the healthtech is being built.

But what happens when the first AI misdiagnosis makes headlines?

🛠️ Product Quick Hits: What Shipped This Week

🎧 Spotify Adds Real-Time Listening Activity: Spotify launched Listening Activity on iOS and Android, letting users view friends' real-time listening via the sidebar alongside chats. It's opt-in, which means Spotify learned from every past privacy backlash.

🤖 Google Slows Android Open Source Releases: Google will now publish new source code to the Android Open Source Project twice per year, down from quarterly releases. The change signals Google tightening control over Android's dev cycle.

🥽 Meta Pauses Ray-Ban Display International Rollout: Meta is pausing the release of its Ray-Ban Display glasses to the UK, France, Italy, and Canada due to "unprecedented demand and limited inventory."

🧱 LEGO Smart Brick Goes Live: LEGO launched its Smart Play platform, powered by a custom "Smart Brick" chip that connects to compatible minifigures and tags for interactive lights and sounds. It's screen-free and works with existing sets.

👔 Personnel Quick Hits: The Great Reshuffling Continues

🌴 Billionaires Fleeing California: Larry Page bought two Miami estates for a combined $173.4M in December and January, moving assets out of California ahead of its proposed wealth tax. Sergey Brin is reportedly in discussions to buy in Miami too. Meanwhile, wealthy Californians are quietly mobilizing on WhatsApp and calls in a long-shot bid to oust Rep. Ro Khanna, who supports the controversial tax.

💔 Tailwind Lays Off 75% of Engineering Team: Adam Wathan, creator of the CSS framework used by millions of developers, revealed the brutal impact AI has had on Tailwind's business. Despite the framework being "more popular than ever," traffic to their docs is down 40% from early 2023.

🔄 Replit's Redemption Arc: A profile of Replit co-founder Amjad Masad reveals he was shunned in investor circles for his criticism of Israel's war in Gaza, before Replit's AI agent took off and pushed the company to a $3B valuation.

📉 IRS PE/VC Audits Faltering: The IRS's planned audit of private equity and venture capital firms is falling apart under President Trump, as senior leaders leave the agency. If you were concerned about the scrutiny of carried interest, you can probably relax.

🌟 Editor's Note

At Startup Intros, our mission is to bring the latest founder-investor news straight to your inbox, keeping you ahead in the fast-paced world of Silicon Valley.

💭 Parting Thoughts

The first week of 2026 revealed what happens when AI stops being a tech story and becomes an economic one.

Tailwind's 75% layoffs aren't about a bad product; the framework is more popular than ever. It's about AI making the docs irrelevant. When Cursor and Claude Code can write perfect Tailwind, why would anyone visit tailwindcss.com? The traffic that drove commercial revenue disappeared into the models.

This is the pattern we'll see repeated across dev tools, documentation, education, and anywhere humans currently learn things before doing them. AI collapses the learning curve, and the businesses built on that curve collapse with it.

Meanwhile, the billionaires are voting with their feet. Larry Page and potentially Sergey Brin are decamping to Miami. Wealthy Californians are organizing against wealth tax supporters. The capital that built Silicon Valley is looking for exits.

For founders, the question isn't just "what should I build?" It's "what survives when AI makes the learning curve disappear?"

Till next time!

P.S. Raised this week, and we missed you? Want to be featured? Have tips or funding questions? Reply or DM us as we’re here to help.

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